Probabilistic approach for Regional Adequacy Assessment in SEE region

21 Apr

A probabilistic approach for Regional Adequacy Assessment in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) region

The first aim of the preliminary demonstration, which has already been performed at the beginning of 2020, was to prove that the designed concept works well with real data and that continuous delivery of expected results is successful. The SCC team and colleagues from the Bulgarian TSO (ESO) used a combination of several tools in order to perform this preliminary demonstration. Acquisition of dynamic input data was performed weekly (every Friday) as a part of the official ENTSO-E cross-regional Short-Term Adequacy (STA) procedure.

Preliminary demonstration indicated that there are some cases when optimisation of adequacy transactions could not be performed in the defined adequacy region. Optimisation for these cases could not be performed because the whole region involved a lack of estimated remaining capacity, implying that internal inadequacy within the region could not be solved by inter-region adequacy transactions. This problem could be potentially solved only through the expansion of the adequacy region, by including a first set of neighbouring areas into the calculation, which could depend on the availability of input data for newly included areas.

The figure above depicts adequacy transactions (red coloured values) that are created if all adequate areas (HR, BA, BG, AL and GR – all areas where Expected Remaining / Insufficient Capacity is greater than zero) start exporting (amount of MWs represented with positive purple-coloured values) to the areas where adequacy issues were detected (SI, RS, ME, MK and RO – all areas where Expected Remaining / Insufficient Capacity is less than zero, i.e. negative purple-coloured values).

To conclude, preliminary demonstration of the Regional Adequacy Assessment (RAA) tool proved that it is working as expected, while further analysis of the results determined some possible ways to further improve the algorithm developed within the CROSSBOW project, thus creating even more realistic results for short-term regional adequacy assessment.

The next objective lies in proving that the RAA tool is working properly and that it could provide daily calculations for 7 days ahead. SCC and ETRA are currently working on this challenge and preparing for the final demonstration. The whole business process will be performed by SCC, but regional TSOs will provide input data as they did for the preliminary demonstration.

More information regarding CROSSBOW scenarios: